Boris's Gamble: The Brexit Election

It's the general election that no one wanted, least of all the British public. However, on the 12th December they're getting it anyway after Parliament actually voted to do something this week. The vote for an early election follows last week's successful vote for the revised Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons. Boris has paused that Bill for an election because the risk of unacceptable amendments was too high. He needed to get it through unamended to keep the support of his hardliners.

To be fair, Boris is one of the few members of the House of Commons who has long wanted to get a general election. He spent most of September openly campaigning for one. His reasons for doing so are obvious. The government lacks a majority and has been unable to enact its flagship policy, and Boris is not a prime minister well suited for the rigours of minority government. His well discussed preference for big picture thinking and disinterest in detail don't lend themselves to managing a majority. On the other hand, he is famously confident in his ability to win over voters with his charisma and anti-politics persona.

Boris has called an election because he thinks he will win a majority. Most informed observers believe that this belief is correct. The divided shambles that comprises the current day Labour Party is simply too weak and unpopular to stop him. At the last election the Labour party succeeded in convincing both Remainers and Leavers that the party was on their side in the Brexit debate. Now both camps are against him and are considering voting for other parties. Labour's poll numbers have collapsed, even in their historic heartlands. There is a genuine possibility that they could be beaten into second place in Wales, which last happened at a general election in 1918. The conservative polling numbers are down too, but nowhere near as much.

There is one party that thinks they have a chance of preventing a Tory majority: the Liberal Democrats. The problem they have is that no-one else shares that belief. Their polling numbers have been on a downward trend for a month, following a controversial revoke Article 50 Policy and the possibility of a Brexit deal. Like the Tories, they need to expand their electoral pitch beyond Brexit. Many potential Lib Dem voters don't agree with the Revoke policy despite their preference for Remain. 2017 proved that a hardline Brexit policy is not sufficient to win over large numbers of voters except in some urban pockets. Only the threat of No Deal would push Remainers into supporting the Lib Dems' Brexit position, which is what won them the Brecon by-election over the summer.

Many voters distrust Boris Johnson given his colourful character and loose reputation with the truth, but he is not historically unpopular. His approval ratings are close to zero, far better than his competition. He attracts leave voters that the Conservatives would otherwise struggle to reach but repels many in the Conservatives core middle-class base. Against a moderate Labour leader such as Tony Blair this would be a problem, against Corbyn this is an advantage. Ultimately, the middle class fear of Prime Minister Corbyn outweighs their distrust of Johnson. If Corbyn looks capable of winning then they will reluctantly back Boris to prevent a hard left Labour Government. If Corbyn is trailing distantly then they might be tempted to flirt with the Lib Dems. This is Jo Swinson's gamble and the basis of her party's current confidence.

There is just one problem with relying on the polls to analyse the state of play. A large chunk of the general population hate all the alternatives and have no idea how they're going to vote. This group are overwhelming turned off by Brexit, they might be either leave or remain voters but ultimately they just want it sorted. Labour's entire electoral strategy is aimed squarely at those voters. It worked last time. This demographic overwhelming voted for Labour, causing a polling surge that transformed the electoral narrative. There is no guarantee they would do so again, particularly as they could simply choose not to turn out. That's one of the downsides of holding a December election.

What we've got is a large chunk of Labour's traditional vote who don't want to vote Labour because of Corbyn, as well as a significant minority of the Conservative's traditional vote who don't want to vote for Boris because of Brexit. Last time both groups ended up voting for their traditional parties. There is no guarantee they may do so again. Now both sides are looking for reasons not to, with Nigel Farage's Brexit Party the most likely beneficiaries in the North and West while Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats the most likely beneficiaries in the South and East. We're likely to see a lot of surprise results on 12th December, but in the end, Boris Johnson looks good value for his majority. The only question is how big.